China stock market board man Su Yang/ZumaPress

中国敢于贬值

北京—8月11日,中国人民银行将人民币中间汇率下调1.9%,引起了全球冲击。许多外国评论家指责贬值是赤裸裸地为了提振中国的出口——他们警告说,此举将引发新一轮货币战争。但有很好的理由相信这绝非中国贬值的初衷。

事实上,中国十分清楚,货币战争无异于拿起石头砸自己的脚。1997年亚洲金融危机期间,中国经济状况比现在糟糕得多,但中国政府仍然抵制住了贬值的诱惑——而中国也成功地在危机中毫发无伤。

如今,贬值对中国的贸易盈余也许根本起不了什么作用。毕竟,中国已经占据全球出口量的12%强,因此进一步扩大这一比例可能恶化贸易条件。在中国的贸易中,加工贸易占主导地位——即进口原材料和部件,出口制成品——这意味着贬值的效果更加模棱两可。

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