Traditional rooftop architecture in China

El gran escape de China

CAMBRIDGE – Desde que comenzó el 2016, la perspectiva de una devaluación importante del renminbi de China ha pendido sobre los mercados globales como una espada de Damocles. Ninguna otra causa de incertidumbre en materia de políticas económicas ha sido tan desestabilizadora. Pocos observadores dudan de que China tenga que dejar que el tipo de cambio del renminbi flote libremente durante algún tiempo en la próxima década. La pregunta es cuál será el nivel de dramatismo que existirá en el ínterin, en tanto colisionen los imperativos políticos y económicos. 

Podría parecer extraño que un país que tuvo un excedente comercial de 600.000 millones de dólares en 2015 deba preocuparse por una debilidad monetaria. Pero una combinación de factores, entre los que se encuentra una desaceleración del crecimiento económico y una relajación gradual de las restricciones a las inversiones en el exterior, ha dado lugar a un torrente de salidas de capital.

Los ciudadanos privados hoy pueden sacar del país hasta 50.000 dólares por año. Si sólo uno de cada 20 ciudadanos chinos ejerciera esta opción, las reservas de moneda extranjera de China se esfumarían. Al mismo tiempo, las empresas con altas dosis de efectivo de China han venido empleando todo tipo de artilugios para sacar dinero del país. Una estrategia perfectamente legal es prestar en renminbi y cobrar en moneda extranjera.

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