Beijing stadium.

中国如何避免债务通缩陷阱?

香港—中国经济近期的下滑及波动触发了全球股市抛售潮,在此形势下,美联储刚刚宣布了暂缓升息。事实上,中国正面临巨大挑战:应对全球范围的过度负债风险及避免因被迫减债而导致的通缩陷阱。

1933年,欧文·费雪(Irving Fisher)第一个指出过度负债和随后被迫减债而导致的通缩危险,并说明了它们在触发美国大萧条中所起的“作用”。四十年后,查尔斯·金德尔伯格(Charles Kindleberger)将这一理论用到了全球金融体系中,强调了在全球范围由于缺乏协调一致的货币、财政和监管政策以及缺乏国际最后贷款人时全球经济可能出现的问题。2011年,辜朝明(Richard Koo)用日本案例强调了资产负债表衰退的长期风险,在这类衰退中,过度负债的债务人为了重建更健康的资产负债表而不得不在相当长的一段时间采取去杠杆的措施。

债务通缩周期始于不断加剧的过度繁荣、过度借贷和不断加码的投机性交易,也就是失衡,之后是泡沫破灭,而过剩产能和债务的顺周期特点导致流动性紧缩、物价通缩、失业及经济停滞、甚至是深度萧条。

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