Communist Party of China leaders Ma Zhancheng/ZumaPress

La Chine a trop de fers au feu

NEW HAVEN – La transition audacieuse de la Chine vers ce que ses dirigeants qualifient de société modérément aisée est une machinerie complexe. Des changements tectoniques se produisent simultanément sur plusieurs fronts : l'économie, les marchés financiers, la stratégie géopolitique et la politique sociale. Le test ultime pourrait résider dans la gestion des relations incroyablement complexes entre ces différents domaines. Les dirigeants chinois seront-ils à la hauteur de la tâche ou veulent-ils faire trop de choses à la fois ?

La plupart des observateurs occidentaux continuent à simplifier outrageusement ce débat. Ils le présentent sous forme de scénarios d'atterrissages brutaux qui sont à coté de la plaque, et ce depuis 20 ans. Avec le plongeon récent de la Bourse chinoise et la dévaluation surprise du yuan, ce type de discours émerge à nouveau. Or à mon avis, la crainte d'une récession en Chine est très exagérée.

Même si le débat sur les perspectives à court terme de la Chine a toute sa place, il ne faut pas négliger un fait majeur : les avancées remarquables du pays sur la voie du rééquilibrage économique, à savoir la transition d'un modèle basé sur la production manufacturière et la construction à un autre, basé sur les services. En 2014, la part de ces derniers dans le PIB atteignait 48,2%, dépassant celle du secteur de la manufacture et de la construction qui ne représentait que 42,6%. Et le fossé continue à s'élargir - durant le premier semestre 2015 la croissance du secteur des services s'est faite au rythme annuel de 8,4%, dépassant largement celui du secteur manufacturier et de la construction (seulement 6,1%).

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