Communist Party of China leaders Ma Zhancheng/ZumaPress

中国的复杂性问题

纽黑文—在中国向其领导人所谓的中等富裕社会的艰巨转型中,有许多不断活动的部分。结构性变化在诸多前沿同时发生——经济、金融市场、地缘政治战略、社会政策等。终极考验也许就在于管理这些发展态势之间的过于复杂的互动。中国领导层能够胜任吗?还是会落入“贪心不足蛇吞象”的窠臼?

大部分西方评论家一直将这一争论过度简化,将其组织为众所周知的中国硬着陆论。这一论调至少已经存在了20年。今年夏天,当中国股市暴跌、人民币意外贬值时,同样的论调再一次兴盛起来。但是,我认为担心中国爆发全面衰退是杞人忧天。

关于中国近期前景的争论很重要,但比这个问题大得多的问题是中国经济稳步迈向再平衡——即从制造业和建筑业活动向服务业的结构转变。2014年,服务业占中国GDP比重达到了48.2%,远超制造业和建筑业之和(42.6%)。并且差距在继续扩大——2015年上半年服务业活动同比增长8.4%,远超制造业和建筑业的6.1%。

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