Renminbi. Chinese currency.

中国的五万亿美元良机

发自上海——在经历了数十年波澜壮阔的发展后,如今的中国正面临着实现经济软着陆的坚巨任务。虽然唱反调者比比皆是,但我们没有必要去担心这些言论,因为在当前动荡的全球经济形势下,中国有着其他国家并不具备的优势:一个清晰的前进路径。只要中国能实施持续全面的举措以提高生产率,就能应对其发展挑战,降低金融危机的风险,并实现向拥有大量富裕中产阶级的消费驱动型高收入经济体过渡。如能实现这一点,到2030年中国的GDP总量估计要比政策制定者们单纯追求投资拉动型增长的方式多产出近5万亿美元。

事实上,中国可能别无选择。其传统经济驱动引擎——大量剩余劳动力和对基础设施,住房和工业能力的大规模投资——正趋于枯竭。劳动年龄人口数量已经见顶,城市化进程正在放缓,而钢铁和水泥行业正饱受产能过剩之苦。由于资本回报率下降,所以中国不可能再靠投资支出来催生足够的增长。

但幸运的是,中国的劳动生产率仅相当于发达经济体10~30%的水平,因此具备相当大的提升空间。麦肯锡全球研究院调研了包括煤炭,钢铁,自动制造业和零售业在内的2000多家中国企业,并认为到2030年有机会将生产效率提升20~100%。

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