Bude čínská infrastrukturální banka fungovat?

CAMBRIDGE – V době, kdy se Čína chystá stanout v čele nové mezinárodní finanční instituce, totiž Asijské infrastrukturální investiční banky (AIIB), která má spravovat prostředky v objemu 50 miliard dolarů, se většina debaty točí kolem marného úsilí Spojených států odradit další rozvinuté ekonomiky od vstupu do této instituce. A jen velmi malá pozornost se věnuje pochopení, proč multilaterální rozvojové půjčky tak často troskotají a co by se dalo udělat, aby fungovaly lépe.

Multilaterální rozvojové instituce zaznamenávají patrně nejtrvalejší úspěchy v situaci, kdy slouží jako „znalostní“ banky, které pomáhají sdílet zkušenosti, nejlepší postupy a technické poznatky napříč regiony. Nejméně úspěšné jsou naopak při financování grandiózních projektů, jež přinášejí užitek současné elitě, avšak nedaří se jim nalézt správnou rovnováhu mezi ekologickými, společenskými a rozvojovými prioritami.

Předním historickým příkladem je výstavba přehrad. Obecně existuje tendence přeceňovat ekonomický přínos velkých infrastrukturálních projektů v zemích poznamenaných špatným vládnutím a korupcí a nedoceňovat dlouhodobé společenské náklady spojené s nutností splácet půjčky bez ohledu na to, zda daný projekt dosahuje či nedosahuje slibovaných výnosů. Je zjevné, že toto riziko hrozí i AIIB.

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