Paul Lachine

Ajuste chino

BARÉIN.– Quienes observan a China están esperando, desean saber si los chinos han logrado implementar un aterrizaje suave, enfriando una economía recalentada y logrando una tasa de crecimiento más sostenible, o si el dragón asiático se estrellará como antes lo han hecho algunos de sus vecinos. Pero algunos, especialmente los políticos estadounidenses en este año de elecciones presidenciales, se centran únicamente en un tema: la balanza comercial china.

Es cierto, poco tiempo atrás el yuan estaba fuertemente subvaluado y los superávits comerciales chinos eran muy grandes. Esa situación está cambiando. Las fuerzas de ajuste están actuando sobre la economía china, por lo que las percepciones extranjeras también necesitan ajustarse.

El superávit comercial chino alcanzó su máximo de 300 mil millones de dólares en 2008, desde entonces no ha hecho más que disminuir. (De hecho, los datos oficiales mostraron un déficit de 31 mil millones en febrero, el mayor desde 1998.) Lo que ha sucedido es claro. Desde que China se reincorporó a la economía global hace tres décadas, sus socios comerciales han estado quitándoles de las manos sus exportaciones de manufacturas, ya que los bajos salarios chinos las hacían súpercompetitivas. Pero, en los últimos años, los precios relativos se han ajustado.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.