Paul Lachine

تغيير مسار النمو في الصين

ميلانو ـ إن الصين تستعد الآن للانتقال من مرتبة الدولة المتوسطة الدخل إلى مصاف الدول المتقدمة. والواقع أن قِلة من البلدان (خمسة على وجه الدقة، وجميعها في آسيا: اليابان وكوريا الجنوبية وتايوان وهونج كونج وسنغافورة) نجحت في إدارة هذا التحول واستمرت في الوقت نفسه في تحقيق معدلات نمو مرتفعة. وحتى يومنا هذا لم تنجح دولة بحجم الصين وتنوعها في تحقيق أمر كهذا.

وتُعَد الخطة الخمسية الثانية عشرة التي اعتمدتها الصين في الشهر الماضي بمثابة خريطة طريق تسير الصين على هداها. إلا أنها في واقع الأمر ليست خطة حقا؛ بل إنها بدلاً من ذلك مجموعة متماسكة مترابطة من أولويات السياسة العامة تهدف إلى دعم التطور البنيوي للاقتصاد ـ وبالتالي لصيانة النمو السريع ـ خلال فترة الخطة أو فيما بعدها.

لذا فإن الأمر ينطوي على قدر عظيم من المخاطر، على الصعيدين الداخلي والخارجي. إن النمو في الكيانات الاقتصادية الناشئة على مستوى العالم يعتمد الآن على الصين، التي تُعَد الشريك التصديري الرئيسي لقائمة متنامية من القوى الاقتصادية الكبرى، بما في ذلك اليابان وكوريا الجنوبية والهند والبرازيل.

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