Chávez in Bedrängnis

SÃO PAULO: Erstmals in den 10 Jahren, die er nun an der Macht ist, werden den Befugnissen des venezolanischen Präsidenten Hugo Chávez durch die jüngsten Siege der Opposition bei den Kommunal- und Regionalwahlen, im Verbund mit der internationalen Finanzkrise, nun Grenzen gesetzt.

Tatsächlich haben die Wahlen gezeigt, dass Chávez’ nicht länger die absolute Kontrolle über das Land innehat. Es gibt inzwischen eine stabile Opposition in Venezuela, und der Abstand zwischen den Regierenden und jenen, die regieren wollen, hat sich verringert. Bedenkt man, dass die Opposition noch immer den Preis für ihren Wahlboykott des Jahres 2005 zahlt, der Chávez zur uneingeschränkten Kontrolle über das Parlament verhalf, ist dies ein wichtiger Fortschritt.

Die wachsende Stärke und Geschlossenheit der Opposition beruht nicht allein auf der Zahl der desillusionierten Chávez-Anhänger. Tatsächlich wurden jene, die einst auf die Schaffung einer „dritten Säule“ in der venezolanischen Politik hofften, durch die traditionelle Polarisierung zwischen Chávez’ Anhängern und Gegnern beiseite gedrängt. Die Opposition wuchs vielmehr, weil die Unterstützung, die sie durch die Öffentlichkeit erhält, wieder das Niveau der Jahre 1998 und 2001 (etwa 40%) erreicht hat und weil es ihr gelang, einige der Nichtwähler und Unentschiedenen – darunter wichtige öffentliche Gruppen – wieder auf ihre Seite zu ziehen.

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