Banqueros centrales que son celebridades

CAMBRIDGE – ¿Por qué los comentarios de los banqueros centrales de las principales economías del mundo acaparan una atención sobredimensionada en estos días? No es que estén cambiando las tasas de interés todo el tiempo. Tampoco han desarrollado modelos nuevos y robustos para analizar la economía. Por el contrario, los pronósticos de crecimiento e inflación de los principales bancos centrales en los años transcurridos desde la crisis financiera sobreestimaron de manera consistente tanto el crecimiento como la inflación -y por márgenes amplios.

Existen muchos buenos motivos para la atención prodigada a los responsables de las políticas monetarias, como por ejemplo la mayor independencia de los bancos centrales, la aceptación pública de la necesidad de nombrar tecnócratas altamente competentes para supervisar la oferta monetaria y la profundización de los mercados financieros. Y muchos banqueros centrales han sido elogiados con razón por el papel que ejercieron a la hora de impedir un colapso global durante la crisis financiera.

Aun así, frente a las numerosas incertidumbres alrededor de los pronósticos macroeconómicos y los efectos de los instrumentos de la política monetaria (en particular el alivio cuantitativo), a muchos académicos les resulta desconcertante que los discursos y declaraciones de los banqueros centrales generen tanta algarabía. Y a pesar de todas sus acciones heroicas durante la crisis financiera, muchos banqueros centrales después han sido demasiado inflexibles. Estaban demasiado preocupados por no cumplir con los objetivos de inflación y no le prestaron suficiente atención a la dinámica deflacionaria. Es más, los banqueros centrales, por empezar, son en parte responsables de la crisis, principalmente como consecuencia de una política regulatoria laxa.

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