Los otros Turkmenbashis de Asia Central

La muerte repentina de un dictador casi siempre desencadena la inestabilidad política. Pero es doblemente peligrosa cuando supone un riesgo de desestabilización en toda una región y la lucha entre las potencias militares más grandes del mundo –Estados Unidos, Rusia y China-- por ganar influencia.

La muerte repentina a finales de diciembre del autoritario presidente vitalicio de Turkmenistán, Saparmurat Niyazov, que se declaró a sí mismo “Turkmenbashi” (líder de todos los turcomanos), pone en peligro la estabilidad en un país que es un proveedor cada vez más importante de energía para Europa. Peor aún, dada la ausencia de un sucesor claramente designado y la debilidad de la sociedad civil y otras instituciones políticas, su muerte podría tener repercusiones por toda el Asia Central.

En efecto, la muerte de Niyazov pone de relieve los problemas más amplios de los regímenes post soviéticos de Asia Central que, con la excepción de Kirguistán, están gobernados por jefes de la era soviética que, si bien no son tan excéntricos o ególatras como Niyazov, no toleran el disentimiento o la oposición. La mayoría de ellos son viejos, algunos están enfermos. Por eso, en los próximos años Asia Central se enfrentará a cambios de líderes en muchos frentes, con aparatos de seguridad –que como en Turkmenistán han sido cruciales para sostener a los regímenes de estos países- que probablemente se convertirán en actores importantes.

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