Pedro Molina

Können wir systemische Risiken regulieren?

MAILAND: In den letzten zwei Jahren trafen zwei gefährliche Episoden finanzieller Instabilität und plötzlicher Veränderungen der Marktdynamik die Weltwirtschaft. Weitere sind wahrscheinlich, denn die Weltwirtschaft ist – nun da sie aus der Krise auftaucht – in mehrerer Hinsicht aus dem Gleichgewicht geraten, insbesondere, was die Staatsverschuldung und die Struktur der globalen Nachfrage angeht.

Systemische Risiken treiben die meisten Krisen an und stellen aus mehreren Gründen eine Herausforderung dar. Erstens sind sie nicht leicht mit Zuversicht ermitteln und sogar noch schwerer zu beweisen. Zweitens übersteigt es unsere Fähigkeiten, den genauen Zeitpunkt vorherzusagen, an dem es zum Knacks kommt (wenn Blasen platzen, Märkte blockieren und Kreditverknappungen eintreten), und dies dürfte auch in Zukunft so bleiben. Und schließlich sind Krisen hochgradig nicht-lineare Ereignisse, d.h. sie ereignen sich ohne besondere Vorwarnung.

Periodische Ausbrüche der Instabilität erlegen denen, die am wenigsten dafür können, hohe soziale Kosten auf. Sollte sich dieses Muster fortsetzen, könnte dies das Vertrauen in Finanzmärkte und Regulierungsstellen erschüttern, was durchaus zu strenger Regulierung, einer Ausweitung der Rolle des Staates und einer Rückführung der Globalisierung führen könnte.

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