Pedro Molina

Est-il possible de réglementer les risques systémiques ?

MILAN – Au cours des deux dernières années, l’économie mondiale a été frappée de plein fouet par une instabilité financière et des modifications soudaines des dynamiques de marché. D’autres événements de ce genre sont probables, parce qu’au sortir de la crise, l’économie globale est déséquilibrée sous bien des aspects, en particulier du point de vue des dettes souveraines et de la structure de la demande globale.

Les risques systémiques sont à l’origine de la plupart des crises et présentent un défi pour plusieurs raisons. En premier lieu, ils ne sont pas faciles à détecter de manière sûre et encore plus difficiles à prouver. Ensuite, prédire le moment exact du point de rupture (quand les bulles éclatent, quand les marchés sont paralysés et quand il n’y a plus de crédit disponible) est, et restera sans doute, au-delà de nos capacités d’analyse. Enfin, les crises sont des événements fortement non linéaires qui se produisent sans signes avant-coureurs.

Les manifestations périodiques d’instabilité font payer un coût social élevé à ceux qui en sont le moins responsables. Si ce schéma venait à se répéter, il pourrait saper la confiance dans les marchés financiers et les autorités de réglementation, une perte de confiance qui pourrait annoncer des réglementations excessives, une reprise en main de l’État et un désengagement de la mondialisation.

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