Pedro Molina

我们能够监管系统风险吗?

米兰——

在过去两年中,世界经济经受了两次金融动荡和市场动态的突然改变。很有可能还会来第三次,因为危机已经造成了全球经济多方面的不平衡,其中尤为突出的是主权债务和全球需求结构问题。

系统风险是大多数危机的罪魁,也是我们所面临的主要挑战。首先,系统风险无法被轻易地察觉,即使被察觉,也很难被证明。此次,预测危机的精确爆发点(什么时候发生泡沫破裂,市场失效和信贷冻结)现在——很可能将来也是——还在人们能力范围之外。最后,危机在很大程度上属于非线性事件,这意味着它们往往在没有什么预警信号的情况下突然发生。

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