Pedro Molina

هل يمكننا تنظيم المخاطر الشاملة؟

ميلانو ـ في غضون العامين الماضيين أصيب الاقتصاد العالمي بنوبتين خطيرتين من انعدام الاستقرار المالي والتغيرات المفاجئة في ديناميكيات السوق. ومن المرجح أن نشهد المزيد، وذلك لأن الاقتصاد العالمي يفتقر إلى التوازن في العديد من الجوانب في ظل محاولات التعافي من الأزمة، وخاصة فيما يتصل بالديون السيادية وهيكل الطلب العالمي.

إن المخاطر الشاملة (التي تهدد النظام بالكامل) تحرك أغلب الأزمات، وتشكل تحدياً لعدة أسباب. الأول أن استكشافها عن يقين ليس بالأمر السهل، بل إن إثباتها أكثر صعوبة. والثاني أن توقع التوقيت الدقيقة للنقطة الفاصلة (حين تنفجر الفقاعات، وتنغلق الأسواق، ويتجمد الائتمان) أمر يتجاوز قدراتنا ومن المرجح أن يظل كذلك. والسبب الأخير أن الأزمات لا تشكل حدثاً خطياً وحيد البعد، وهو ما يعني أنها تحدث من دون إنذار مسبق.

ويفرض التفشي الدولي لعدم الاستقرار تكاليف اجتماعية باهظة على هؤلاء الذين لم يسهموا إلا بأقل قدر في إحداثه. وإذا تكرر هذا النمط فقد يؤدي إلى تآكل الثقة في الأسواق المالية والأجهزة التنظيمية، وهو ما قد يؤدي بدوره إلى فرض قيود تنظيمية خرقاء، وتوسع دور الدولة، والتراجع عن العولمة.

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