David Cameron and François Hollande in Paris.

Politics

Může Islámský stát sjednotit Evropu?

Nov 26, 2015 Hans-Werner Sinn

MNICHOV – Během finanční krize severní členové eurozóny zachránili své protějšky na jihu poskytnutím obřích finančních výpomocí a podporou slibu Evropské centrální banky, že euro zachrání za každou cenu. Když však nedávno Německo požadovalo systém kvót k řešení masivního přílivu uprchlíků, jeho partneři takovou solidaritu neprojevili. Konečně, když teď Francie otřesená pařížskými útoky vyhlásila válku Islámskému státu, ostatní evropské země krčí rameny, mumlají kondolence a tiše doufají, že konfliktu budou ušetřeny.

Plyne z toho zřetelný závěr: Evropa udělala značný pokrok na cestě k fiskální unii, leč unii politické zůstává velmi vzdálena.

Půlstoletí od založení společného trhu a 15 let od zavedení jednotné měny Evropě stále schází sjednocené policejní síly a společná zahraniční politika. Snad největší problém tkví v tom, že EU je stále domovem 28 armád s 28 náčelníky štábu, svázaných jen volně v rámci NATO.

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Hans-Werner Sinn

Writing for PS since 2002
111 Commentaries

Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Munich, is a former president of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Green Paradox: A Supply-Side Approach to Global Warming (The MIT Press, 2012).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 18 Comments on this article

Víctor Sánchez Dec 16, 2015

Mr. Sinn named the group of criminals “Islamic State” and it is not a State. We have to call the things as they are. We are talking about a “ terrorist organization” and not about a State. During the financial crisis in Europe, the German banks were rescued during the financial crisis, also French banks as other involved institutions. Greece´s Creditors were Germany with € 57 Bill., France € 43 Bill., Italy € 38 Bill., Spain € 25 Bill., and Others € 32 Bill. Thus, the main creditor were German banks.
If we would like to talk about the European Integration, we should ask the European Politicians about the current Greece´s economic crisis. Did the Troika´s programs achieve the economic recovery of Greece? How we can be sure that the a deep integration will be positive for Europe when everybody can realize that a small economy (Greece represents only 2% of the European´s GDP) did not rescued until now.
The question from Mr. Sinn or better his proposal is oriented to motive the deep integration of Europe as a result of the attacks of a criminal terrorist organization is wrong. The European Integration will be possible only when the Greece´s economy presents real signs of recovery.
Mrs. Merkel´s request to distribute the massive influx of refugees does not make sense. Mr. Sinn, as you might know the Bertelsman Foundation from Germany have recently published a study on the impact of the refugees on the Germany Public Budget where the results indicate that the impact for Germany at the end will be negative.
On the other hand, the EU did not succeed by helping European citizens. We have to analyze the mismanagement of the Greece´s Debt crisis and the economic tragedy of this country.
Why do other European countries should be ready to accept a refugee´s quote? Does not have the EU enough financial and economic problems?
Please remember, the Maastricht Treaty regards the Protocol on the Convergence and Protocol on the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Only a few countries are able to achieve the criteria for Government debt-to-GDP ratio of less 60% limit. Germany and France did not achieve this criteria. Do not have the EU countries enough unemployment rates?
Any terrorist organization will be defeated if all the European Countries work together, it is also necessary to add the citizen participation by employing the technology they own.
It is not necessary to have a European fiscal union to win the fight against any terrorist organization as well was not necessary any fiscal and formal political union to defeat Hilter´s irrationality and his criminal organization.
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John Jones Dec 2, 2015

It is grossly inadequate to imagine that transcending national boundaries can be done on a European basis. That may be a stepping stone but we need a global authority, an empowered UN.
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Daniele Vecchi Nov 30, 2015

Dear Prof. Sinn, it would have been nice to read these lines when Italy was facing alone the immigration flows. many begged for a European approach but nobody in europe was listening. Now that the flows are coming through inland routes and not via sea everyone is advocating a European policy towards immigration. Lastly French and German banks have been bailed out on peripheral debt by bailing in indirectly several sovereigns like Italy. We have a better history than Germany in NOT defaulting on sovereign debt so do your part as well!
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hari naidu Nov 29, 2015

The EU - Turkey Council Summit held today (29 Nov) with PM of Turkey seems to have fulfilled your original q/ follow up action by Commission will inevitably accelerate the process of EU-Turkey strategic action to stop ISIS. They have also found a solution to not only the Syrian refugee problem but may be (als0) Cyprus - which must now be settled jointly by EU Commission intervention.
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Robbie Jena Nov 28, 2015

It depends...when Islamic State morphs in to Ottoman Empire via Turkey (NATO). Thank you.
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M M Nov 28, 2015

The true disease is called “Political & Financial Corruption”, and to put it in any other name like, Terrorism, National Security, Islam, Judaism, Refugees, IS, etc. is fundamentally wrong. One only needs to look at how and where our heads of states/ political leaders live today compared to their predecessors and the high rewards they get after they leave office (if at all in some cases). These migrants (refugees) were handed an “open invitation” to the EU and guess by whom?
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jagjeet sinha Nov 27, 2015

Europe must create a narrative where a 'successful' future is predicated not on being "Non English" or "Non Arabic" or "Non Russian".
Europe needs to "sing" because it has a "song", not because it has an answer to English/Arabic/Russian.
Esperanto failed - because Europe was not able to "sing".
I believe the unifying narrative needs to be a positive affirmation - no need to be Non Islamic, Non Hindu or Non Buddhist.
Europe has sufficient chemistry within to script positive affirmations of a future - that will uplift all of mankind to higher heights.
You will know when Europe achieves that resonance when it's renaissance produces fragrance, that attracts all.
America led the World to the Moon, and all mankind joined in awe, in amazement to "hear" the latest "song" from America.
The Apple story of Steve Jobs was another American achievement, that the World applauded wholeheartedly.
The World is waiting for the European Apple and the European Apollo.
Nay, the World is expecting greater heights from Europe.
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Steve Hurst Nov 27, 2015

Excuse me but in what way has it been proven that forcing bailouts on Greece has made significant progess towards fiscal union. The inherent imbalances in the Eurozone still remain. They took a decade to manifest and will pop up again. Please show me a fiscal union which exists without inbuilt consistently ongoing wealth transfer richer to poorer areas. No mechanism exists in the Eurozone so the issue remains and growing debt is the device left to fill the hole. If we then look at the free movement area, Schengen - The principle is that borders are open and control is transfered to the area external borders. If this fails then control has to revert to original state borders. Greece has totally failled in controlling its borders and has simply waved migrants onwards. Further, when one country unilaterally suspends a common policy which affects all in the group - which is what Germany did with the Dublin agreement - and further compounds the mistake by demanding the resulting mess is shared out - then the game is lost. At the moment the parties trying to hold the Schengen and EZ together are the ones who have the most exposure to it failing. In particular Germany which faces monumental liability on TARGET2. Anybody would have to seriously doubt there is a future for the EU in its current form, not least because voters have rights and selfdetermination and the leaning currently is away from centralisation. At the end of the day democracy will end actions voters are not happy with. National politicans seem to be waking up to that but EU policy drags way way behind
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Francesco D'Allessandro Nov 27, 2015

During the epoch of the Crusades, all the feuding that prevailed in Europe among the ruling classes were relocated to the Middle East. As such there was never a political-military cohesiveness between the Crusaders. On the other side of the spectrum, Muslim warriors fared no better; there were also deep dissensions within their ranks. If one were to dissect the 20th and 21st centuries we would see that history is repeating itself once more as the deep schisms between Shias and Sunnis are surfacing (for although within the universe of radical Islam most groups share the same quantum of animosity against Western civilization, they also harbor ill-feelings towards each other often erupting in violence). In the EU, in spite of the fact that there is no bloodshed among the different countries that compose its current governmental system, a similar pattern follows as Mr. Sinn explicitly explains: there is to some extent a unity of purpose regarding a fiscal union but no political-military consensus in sight.

The Spanish philosopher George Santayana once stated that: "Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it". If our current crop of statesmen do not heed the lessons of history and unite against ISIS and the other radical Islamist insurgencies, we will see an increment in carnage in the decades to come.

It is obvious the enemy knows and exploits our inherent divisions; although the Russian Federation is not in the same nefarious league as ISIS, al-Qaida and Hizballah, it certainly took advantage of the EU political disunity to annex Crimea, and intervene militarily in Eastern Ukraine and Syria.

Until the day comes when Europe and the West fuse together as a single entity to confront our adversaries, we will experience more 9-11's attacks, London and Madrid bombings, Charlie Hebdo and Paris massacres. But it has to begin with a united political-military Europe!
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Hiroshi Nagatsuma Nov 27, 2015

It is Professor Feldstein who predicted EU economic chaos long before economic crises in Spain, Greek and other countries.Now to avoid entry of terrorists from another country Schengen Agreement wil be waivered. I expected Holland, a graduate from Grand Ecole, to be an intelligent leader of France, but now he is　a　lapdog　of　Merchkel　as　pointed　out　Emmanuel　Todd　and　many　French　people　think　so　too.　Dissappointed.
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 27, 2015

Hans-Werner Sinn points out the shortcomings within the European Union, which have emerged following a series of crises. The financial crisis had plunged the eurozone into the north/south divide, with rich northern members bailing out their southern counterparts. The refugee crisis this year has laid bare the east/west divide, which sees Western European countries - mainly Germany and Sweden - taking in most of the refugees, while those in Eastern Europe have rejected the burden sharing.
Sinn hopes the terror attacks by the Islamic State on Paris would bring EU members together. France has invoked Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty. The solidarity clause states that if a EU member is victim of “armed aggression on its territory” other states have an “obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power.” Article 42.7 is similar to NATO’s Article 5 - an attack against any member of NATO is considered to be an attack on all members.
What Sinn laments is that after 50 years of close cooperation and 15 years of sharing the same currency, "Europe still lacks a united police force and a single foreign policy. Perhaps most problematic, the EU is still home to 28 armies, with 28 commanders-in-chief, bound together only loosely by NATO." He says EU leaders don't seem to give "this reality" a serious thought, because they opt for a closer fiscal union, which he sees as a wrong direction, because it would "only exacerbate the flaws in the eurozone’s structure" without addressing "Europe's public-debt problems."
According to the author a fiscal union would still make a political union unlikely because of France. This country has Europe's strongest military, but it had "thwarted all attempts to pool Europe’s armed forces." In 1953 it rejected the treaty for the Western Union Defense Organization, the precursor to NATO. In 1966 De Gaulle ordered France's withdrawal from NATO. This decision was only reversed by Nicolas Sarkozy. In 2005, France said "No" to the European Union Constitution, which aimed to forge a closer political union. Sinn says "successive French presidents have declared that France will not accept a United States of Europe as even a remote goal of European politics."
Now the attacks in Paris might be a "game changer" in an effort "to create a European political union." Sinn proposes EU countries to stand by France in fighting ISIS. In return France and others "should relieve Germany, Austria, Sweden, Hungary, and Slovenia of their burden, by accepting the refugee quota plan. He names the US and Switzerland as examples of successful unions, which began as military and defence alliances, which later developed into fiscal unions. He hopes the EU would change its "approach of integration" by implementing key elements of a political union - "an integrated police force, common asylum laws, a single foreign policy, and, above all, a united army."
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Zsolt Hermann Nov 27, 2015

It is unlikely that the present threat from ISIS can unify Europe.
And even if it could the effect would be short lived.
Uniting with others, building true mutual cooperation is against our inherently self-conscious, self-justifying nature that is driving us to revel in succeeding at the expense of others.

Which today turns out to be a real tragedy since in today's globally interconnected and interdependent world our present behavior, attitude towards each other is self-destructive. If we needed any more proof after the 2008 crash and ongoing struggle now in the form of the migrant crisis and the threat from extremism we received all the confirmation we needed.

The truth is "unity", mutually complementing cooperation is neither political nor fiscal. Selfless, mutually complementing cooperation is the fundamental law of nature. Without it homeostasis, balance thus life and optimal development would not be possible. Our own biological body would not survive of all cells, organs did not cooperate in such selfless, altruistic way always making calculations for the whole collective above "individual" calculations.

Thus with our instinctive, inherent behavior, inclination we defy nature's basic law, we live as cancer cells destroying everything around us including ourselves.
There are no political or military solutions. First we have to fix how we all relate towards each other. Without truly united, mutually complementing foundations no military might can defeat any enemy, and we also can't solve all other facets of our deepening, multi-faceted global crisis.
- hari naidu Nov 27, 2015
  
  I always enjoy reading your commentary - from south pacific - linking universality of humankind values with international conflicts....
  The cells in our human body couldn't survive long without every cell working 24/7 to maximize the common benefit of the whole body and its survival.
  Politicians cannot be compared to body cells for obvious resons. They are band of illicit knowledge & ignorance on political governance - in a huristic cosmology.
  Is there a way to reform the process without killing the goose....!
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Adrian Lucas Nov 26, 2015

That there has been "significant progress toward fiscal union" is news to me.
The EU is, sadly, little more than an undemocratic arrangement by which internationally operating MNCs have disempowered sovereign governments and their electorates. EU rules are written by the lobbyists of MNCs, then rubber-stamped by an elected European Parliament that is as democratic as the TTIP drafting process. Hence the never-ending stream of costly political-economic scandals, including those of the Euro (one Greek Euro is worth much less than one German Euro), and, most recently, of diesel vehicles (nowhere near as clean as EU institutions tried to persuade us they were).
Since MNCs only emerged in the 20th century, any comparison with the US, and Switzerland, is ludicrous. A nation like Switzerland had to deal with conflicts between Protestant Cantons and Catholic Cantons, between agricultural Cantons and Cantons with industry, and between Cantons with different languages (Swiss-German, or French, or bilingual Swiss-German and French, or Italian, or tri-lingual Romansch, Swiss-German and Italian). But the development of the Switzerland's Confederation never had to deal with superpowerful MNCs, and their never-ending threats ("give us tax breaks, and subsidies, or we will build our new R&D centre in XYZ") until the 21st century.
Hans-Werner Sinn, you are a brilliant economist and writer, but this contribution of yours is really not a great contribution. The undemocratic EU reminds me of the undemocratic Soviet Union, and the undemocratic Soviet Union collapsed.
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M M Nov 26, 2015

IS may very well be able to unify Europe if it manages to take control of it. After all they managed to control two fragmented / dysfunctional/ warn torn countries, to infiltrate several countries and to spread a fake ideology and to getting it accepted by the population. Any similarities with the current EU and its leadership?
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A C Nov 26, 2015

The lack of foreign policy originates from the imbalance in the economic policy. Jeez... even 1st year student knows that! These two are interconnected! Is it a surprise that know Germany is enslaved and cannot say something to Putin? It is because Merkel is enslaved and begging for energy to feed the corrupt and inefficient German industry. Tsts... German propaganda... no wonder the word originates from Germany.
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hari naidu Nov 26, 2015

I thought you'd retired peacefully by now!
You're up to (political) mischief, here; talking *truth* to *power*.
The National Assembly, in Paris, is the bottleneck to political union. The French concept of national sovereignty is sacrosanct. That's why they voted against the referendum on EU federal constitution, chaired by ex-President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing.
The reason why we've so many *summits* and no discernable political success in managing EU Council meetings is principally due to Berlin's conditionality on status quo - 28 sovereign member states - i.e. sovereign veto!
I've argued here, as is western European culture was from a different planet compared to eastern block. Will they ever meet at a *heurigen* and drink a glass together to make love on political - not yet fiscal - union?
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