Ist der Irak noch zu gewinnen?

Im Bemühen, das Regime Saddam Husseins zu stürzen, stützt sich die Bush-Regierung auf zwei entscheidende Argumente. Als erstes bestehen Präsident Bush und seine höhergestellten Assistenten darauf, dass der nächste Irak-Krieg eine Weiterführung des militärischen Vorgehens gegen den Terrorismus sei. Er würde Amerika und die Welt - mit den Worten des Stellvertretenden Verteidigungsministers Paul Wolfowitz - davor bewahren, ,,dass Massenvernichtungswaffen in die Hände von Terroristen fallen könnten".

Zweitens versprechen Präsident Bush und seine Mannschaft, dem Irak die Demokratie zu bringen. Das sei, so hofft man, eine Veränderung, welche die Demokratisierung der ganzen Region voranbringen würde. Ein friedliches, demokratisches Morgengrauen im Irak, so behaupten sie, würde bald über die anderen autoritären arabischen Staaten ebenso hereinbrechen. Durch diese Umgestaltung der politischen Landschaft im Nahen Osten, glauben amerikanische Staatsbeamte, würden sie den islamischen Extremismus an seinen Wurzeln und Ursachen treffen.

Die Herren Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney und Wolfowitz gefallen sich darin, als Realisten in Erscheinung zu treten. Doch wie realistisch sind solche Überlegungen? Stützen sie sich auf eine nüchterne Einschätzung der verwickelten Realitäten im Irak und in der Region? Oder lassen sie sich von Ideologie und Wunschdenken treiben? Wird ein Krieg gegen den Irak den USA in ihrem Kampf gegen die Terroristen helfen oder wird er die Amerikaner noch verwundbarer machen?

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