Es hora de poner a prueba a Irán

NUEVA YORK – El debate sobre cómo hacer frente a los intentos de Irán de desarrollar una capacidad de fabricación de armas nucleares se centra más que nada en dos opciones. La primera es confiar en el poder de disuasión y resignarse a convivir con un Irán que posea un pequeño arsenal nuclear o la capacidad de crearlo con poco preaviso. La segunda es lanzar un ataque militar preventivo para destruir componentes críticos del programa iraní y de ese modo retardar su avance (las estimaciones indican que se lo podría demorar por al menos unos dos años).

Pero ahora existe una tercera opción: negociar un tope máximo para el programa nuclear, que no sea demasiado bajo para el gobierno iraní ni demasiado alto para Estados Unidos, Israel y el resto del mundo.

En realidad, esa opción existe hace años y se la discutió en diversas rondas de negociaciones. La diferencia es que ahora cambió el contexto. Y los cambios al contexto pueden ser determinantes; de hecho, el resultado de las conversaciones formales casi siempre depende de lo que sucede lejos de la mesa de negociación.

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