L’heure du test pour l’Iran

NEW YORK – L’essentiel du débat sur la manière d’appréhender les efforts de l’Iran vers le développement d’une capacité d’armement nucléaire tourne autour de deux options. La première consiste à s’appuyer sur la dissuasion et à choisir de vivre aux côtés d’un Iran disposant d’un arsenal nucléaire réduit ou d’une capacité à assembler celui-ci sans que nous en soyons informés longtemps à l’avance. La seconde consiste à lancer une intervention militaire préventive destinée à détruire les infrastructures critiques du programme iranien, et de faire reculer sa progression de quelques années.

Une troisième possibilité se dégage cependant désormais, à savoir négocier un plafond sur le programme nucléaire, qui ne se situerait ni trop bas pour le gouvernement iranien, ni trop haut en faveur des États-Unis, d’Israël et du reste de la planète.

En réalité, cette option est à l’étude depuis plusieurs années, et n’en est pas à sa première ronde de négociation. Le contexte est néanmoins différent aujourd’hui. Et les changements de contexte peuvent s’avérer tout à fait déterminants ; en effet, ce qui se produit loin de la table des négociations l’emporte presque toujours sur l’issue des discussions en face-à-face.

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