Könnten hohe Ölpreise ihr Gutes haben?

Die weltweiten Ölpreise überschritten Mitte des Sommers die Marke von 40 Dollar pro Barrel und sind zwischenzeitlich auf 55 Dollar angestiegen. Dabei beträgt der derzeitige Ölpreis noch immer nur zwei Drittel des während der iranischen Revolution des Jahres 1979 erreichten absoluten Spitzenwertes. An den Terminmärkten geht man außerdem davon aus, dass der Ölpreis wieder fallen und sich bei etwa 45 Dollar pro Barrel stabilisieren dürfte. Trotzdem haben viele Konjunkturbeobachter aufgrund des derzeitigen hohen Niveaus bei den Ölpreisen begonnen, ihre Erwartungen an das wirtschaftliche Wachstum zurückzuschrauben.

„Höhere Ölpreise werden uns erhalten bleiben," so der amerikanische Wirtschaftsexperte Allen Sinai. „Dies führt zwangsläufig zu weniger Wirtschaftswachstum und könnte bewirken, dass die Kerninflation ansteigt." Tatsächlich stellen laut Sinai die gestiegenen Ölpreise „die größte Gefahr ... seit dem Platzen der Börsenblase in den Jahren 2000-2001 dar."

Mit dieser Meinung steht Sinai durchaus nicht allein. Falls der Ölpreis bei 40 Dollar pro Barrel verharrt, so steht zu erwarten, dass dies so gut wie keine Auswirkungen auf das kurzfristige weltweite BIP-Wachstum haben wird. Falls der Ölpreis allerdings bei oder in der Nähe von 60 Dollar pro Barrel stehen bleibt, so dürfte dies allgemein zu einer Absenkung der Prognosen für das BIP-Wachstum um 1% pro Jahr führen.

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