Mohou být vysoké ceny ropy dobré?

Světové ceny ropy překročily 40 USD za barel už vprostřed léta a teď se vyšplhaly několik dolarů nad 50 USD za barel. Dnešní ceny ropy stále představují jen dvě třetiny skutečného vrcholu z doby íránské revoluce roku 1979 a budoucí trhy předpokládají, že cena ropy opět klesne a ustálí se asi na 45 USD za barel. Současná vysoká úroveň cen ropy však přiměla prognostiky mírnit své předpovědi hospodářského růstu.

„Vyšší ceny ropy budou přetrvávat," říká americký ekonomický prognostik Allen Sinai. „O to musíme snížit růst a jádrovou inflaci by to mohlo přivést ke zvýšení." Skutečně, podle Sinaie jsou vyšší ceny ropy „největší riziko...od prasknutí burzovní bubliny v letech 2000-2001."

Sinai zdaleka není osamocen. Zůstává-li cena ropy na 40 USD za barel, dá se očekávat, že nebude mít téměř žádné dopady na krátkodobý růst světového HDP. Drží-li se však cena ropy na 60 USD za barel nebo blízko této hodnoty, lze očekávat, že všichni své odhady růstu HDP sníží o 1% ročně.

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