Dean Rohrer

¿Pueden cooperar los países del Asia oriental?

SEUL – A medida que China continúa su auge ininterrumpido, la gente de toda el Asia oriental se pregunta si alguna vez sus Estados podrán establecer las relaciones pacíficas y estables que ahora caracterizan a Europa. Dada la regularidad de los pleitos diplomáticos graves –por motivos que van desde pequeños atolones en el Mar de la China Meridional hasta el legado de la Segunda Guerra Mundial—esto puede parecer un sueño esquivo. Pero en vista de que el nacionalismo y los presupuestos militares están aumentando rápidamente, alcanzar una estabilidad consensual se ha convertido en un imperativo para la región. ¿Puede lograrse?

La corriente “liberal” de las relaciones internacionales recomienda tres ingredientes: democratización política, mayor interdependencia económica e instituciones viables, mediante las que los Estados del Asia oriental puedan llevar a cabo sus relaciones de manera multilateral. Debido a que, como señaló hace mucho Immanuel Kant, los Estados con sistemas políticos democráticos tienden a no pelear entre sí, se debe fomentar la democracia para garantizar la paz.

Desde hace mucho, la búsqueda de una Pax Democratia ha formado parte del diseño de la política exterior estadounidense. Y desde 1945, los Estados europeos han hecho de la democracia un elemento central de su integración. No obstante, la gran variedad de sistemas políticos de Asia oriental significa que llegar a tal consenso democrático es improbable, al menos por ahora.

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