Le banche centrali possono ancora incidere sui tassi di cambio?

LONDRA – Il 16 settembre 1992, giorno che viene ricordato come il “mercoledì nero” nella storia britannica, la Banca d’Inghilterra non riuscì più a mantenere la sterlina nella banda di oscillazione consentita dal meccanismo europeo di cambio. Sostenere la sterlina al tasso di cambio richiesto si era rivelato proibitivamente dispendioso per la banca centrale e il governo britannico. Al contrario, però, risultò essere particolarmente proficuo per George Soros. 

Da allora, la Banca d’Inghilterra ha evitato qualsiasi forma di intervento nei mercati dei cambi, o Foreign Exchange Market. E l’episodio servì a rafforzare a livello internazionale l’idea che la politica monetaria dei singoli paesi debba concentrarsi sulla stabilità nazionale dei prezzi e al contempo consentire la libera fluttuazione dei tassi di cambio.

A seguito del “mercoledì nero”, divenne sempre più evidente l’impossibilità di fissare nello stesso momento il tasso di cambio e le condizioni monetarie nazionali. Secondo questo punto di vista, in un’economia di mercato con una valuta convertibile e liberi flussi di capitale, il tasso di cambio non può essere manipolato senza conseguenti aggiustamenti di altri aspetti monetari. Il tentativo di incidere sui tassi di cambio mediante controlli dei capitali o interventi diretti nei mercati delle valute era destinato al fallimento in qualsiasi situazione che non fosse a brevissimo termine.

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