La croissance exceptionnelle de l’Argentine peut-elle durer ?

BUENOS AIRES – L’Argentine est un pays étrange. Au cours des huit dernières années, les indicateurs économiques ont affiché des résultats exceptionnels : le PIB a cru de presque 70 pour cent (un taux comparable à celui de la Chine) et la croissance de l’emploi s’est élevé à plus de 30 pour cent. Les excellents résultats financiers du pays, sans précédent, se sont accompagnés d’un excédent commercial qu’envient même les pays les plus solvables au plan fiscal.

Cette situation représente un rétablissement tout à fait inattendu par rapport à l’énorme endettement public et privé d’il y a une décennie à peine. Le rebond rapide de l’Argentine lui a également permis d’accumuler d’importantes réserves de change.

Tout aussi surprenant est le taux d’épargne des ménages, qui a permis un financement intérieur des investissements – qui ont doublé – et paradoxalement, les sorties de capitaux. Une croissance économique robuste, favorisée par les prix élevés des matières premières, a permis des recettes fiscales record, et après huit ans d’échanges commerciaux intenses, le secteur industriel est plus prospère que jamais.

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