¿Hay algo que pueda moderar la caída del dólar?

“La negación de la situación del dólar", el estado de ceguera voluntaria en el que los banqueros y las autoridades de los bancos centrales dicen no preocuparse por la caída de la moneda estadounidense, parece estar llegando a su fin. Ahora hasta Jean Claude Trichet, Presidente del Banco Central Europeo, se ha unido a la ola de inquietud.

Cuando se lanzó el euro, el tipo de cambio entre el dólar estadounidense y el euro ($:€) era de US$1,16/€1. A ese precio, el dólar estaba subvaluado en cerca de un 10% con respecto a su paridad de poder de compra (PPP). Inicialmente, el precio del dólar se elevó, pero desde 2002 ha descendido constantemente la mayor parte del tiempo. Cada día parece traer consigo un nivel más bajo con respecto al euro.

Frente a la constante caída del dólar, las autoridades parecen haber quedado paralizadas. Son muchas las razones de esta inacción, pero es difícil evitar la impresión de que se relacionan con el estado actual de las teorías académicas acerca de los tipos de cambios.

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