Comment ralentir la chute du dollar

La dénégation quant à la situation du dollar, cet état d'aveuglement volontaire qui a fait dire aux banquiers et aux dirigeants des banques centrales qu'ils ne sont pas préoccupés par la chute de la monnaie américaine semble toucher à sa fin. Et maintenant même Jean-Claude Trichet, le gouverneur de la Banque a rejoint leur concert d'inquiétude.

Au moment du lancement de l'euro, ce dernier valait 1,16 dollars. A ce taux, le dollar était sous-évalué de quelques 10%, à parité de pouvoir d'achat (PPA). Au début, le dollar a monté, mais depuis 2002, il a surtout dégringolé. Et il semble s'enfoncer chaque jour davantage.

Les responsables politiques semblent paralysés face à cette chute libre. Il y a beaucoup de causes à leur inaction, mais ils finissent par ressembler à des universitaires qui théorisent autour des taux de change. Dit simplement, les économistes estiment soit qu'il ne faut rien faire, soit que l'on ne peut rien faire. Selon les modèles économiques reposant sur des attentes rationnelles des acteurs du marché, le taux de change ne doit pas s'éloigner de son taux de parité réel. Croyant avoir réussi à modéliser le mode de pensée des traders sur le marché des changes, les partisans de ce modèle ne voient pas le besoin d'intervenir, car sauf lors d'écarts temporaires, le marché fixe les devises à leur juste valeur.

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