外汇储备面面观

中国人民银行和日本银行-以及亚洲的其他中央银行-遇到了麻烦。它们积累了大量的外汇储备,估计超过2万亿美金。问题是其中的美元储备占了绝大部分-而美元正在迅速地贬值。

亚洲各央行在应对政策方面似乎都乏善可陈。如果它们无所作为并坚定地持有美元,那么其损失只会进一步加大。如果它们为了让美元升值尔买入更多,也只能使同一个问题变得更严重。反之,如果他们力图使外汇储备多样化,则只会使美元贬值更快,从而造成更大的损失。将其他的货币作为外汇储备也很可能会遇到同样的问题。

欧元已被追捧为替代美元或除美元以外的另一种储备货币。一些欧洲人热诚地鼓励亚洲人将他们的外汇储备多样化。但在几年以后,欧元也很可能重蹈美元覆辙。巨大的财政赤字和经济滞胀可能让外汇市场认为欧元没有前途从而引发一股抛售浪潮-因而给持有欧元的央行们带来损失。

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