Будущее на основе евро

Евро исполнилось шесть лет. Настало время обсудить его успехи, а также то, оправдала ли единая европейская валюта ожидания, сопровождавшие ее рождение.

Эти ожидания не были скромными. За счет уменьшения операционных издержек и устранения неопределенности, связанной с изменением курса валют, ожидалось, что единая европейская валюта приведет к полной интеграции финансовых и товарных рынков. Это, в свою очередь, должно было увеличить выгоду от торговли, способствовать установлению более жесткой конкуренции и стимулировать потоки иностранного капитала, снизить стоимость займов и предоставить больше возможностей для распределения рисков, что, в конечном счете, должно было привести к росту инвестиций и производительности.

Однако реальность принесла разочарование. По сравнению с ситуацией за пять лет до введения евро в 1999 году темпы роста производительности понизились в Италии, Германии, Испании и Нидерландах, в то время как за тот же период времени они повысились или сохранились на прежнем уровне в Дании, Швеции и Великобритании – странах ЕС, оставшихся вне еврозоны. Действительно, за исключением Франции евро не стало благословением для стран, принявших его.

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