Un’Europa dai Tratti sempre più Scozzesi

LONDON – Quale dei seguenti eventi è più probabile che accada quest’anno: che la Scozia voti la secessione dal Regno Unito nel suo referendum di settembre, o che almeno uno dei paesi della zona euro decida di uscirne? La saggezza comune suggerisce che l’indipendenza scozzese è possibile, anche se non molto probabile, mentre l’allontanamento di qualsiasi paese dalla moneta unica è un’ipotesi fantasiosa.

Ma le decisioni che la Scozia dovrà prendere circa la propria situazione monetaria nei mesi successivi al voto per l’indipendenza hanno almeno la stesse probabilità di presentarsi per alcuni paesi della zona euro nei prossimi due anni. In realtà, vi è un legame naturale tra le due situazioni.

La possibilità di continuare ad usare la Sterlina britannica da parte di una Scozia indipendente - la posizione ufficiale del governo scozzese - potrebbe essere affrontata in due modi. La prima, quella che il Primo Ministro Alex Salmond sembra avere in mente, comporterebbe un’unione monetaria sotto la guida di una banca centrale che dovrebbe rendere consto sia alla Scozia che al Regno Unito.

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