Was Schottland und die Eurozone gemeinsam haben

LONDON – Was ist wahrscheinlicher? Dass die Schotten im September bei der Volksbefragung dafür stimmen, das Vereinigte Königreich zu verlassen, oder dass dieses Jahr mindestens ein Land die Eurozone verlässt? Die gängige Meinung ist, dass die schottische Unabhängigkeit möglich, wenn auch nicht wahrscheinlich ist, während es sehr unrealistisch ist, dass ein Land die Eurozone verlässt.

Aber die Entscheidungen, die Schottland in den Monaten nach der Unabhängigkeit hinsichtlich seiner Währungsvereinbarungen treffen muss, müssen in den nächsten beiden Jahren mindestens auch von einigen Ländern der Eurozone getroffen werden. Die beiden Situationen sind sich nicht unähnlich.

Sollte ein unabhängiges Schottland weiterhin das Englische Pfund benutzen, was die offizielle Position der schottischen Regierung ist, gibt es dafür zwei Optionen. Die erste, die der Erste Minister Alex Salmond offenbar bevorzugt, wäre eine Währungsunion mit Schottland und dem übrig gebliebenen Vereinigten Königreich mit einer gemeinsamen Zentralbank.

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