brick wall Laura Gilmore/Flickr

Los BRICS detienen su auge

STANFORD – Hace algunos años, expertos y responsables del diseño de políticas pronosticaban que los BRICS –Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sudáfrica– serían los nuevos motores del crecimiento global. Una extrapolación de un rápido crecimiento económico condujo a muchos a imaginar un futuro de mayor prosperidad para estas economías –y en consecuencia para el resto del mundo.

Sin embargo, ahora el entusiasmo ha bajado. Las economías de Brasil y Rusia se están contrayendo, mientras que las de China y Sudáfrica han ralentizado sustancialmente. Solo la tasa de crecimiento de India se ha mantenido alta y ahora supera ligeramente a la de China. ¿Los BRICS cumplirán sus primeras promesas? ¿O es inevitable que los problemas persistan?

Dado que las economías de bajos ingresos a menudo no disponen de suficiente capital fijo (computadoras, fábricas, infraestructura) ni capital humano (educación y capacitación) por trabajador, suelen ofrecer potencial de rendimientos más alto a las inversiones de capital. Esto significa que pueden tener un crecimiento más rápido que las economías más prosperas, hasta que su ingreso per cápita se nivela.

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