brick wall Laura Gilmore/Flickr

金砖国家繁荣已去

斯坦福—几年前,专家和决策者预测金砖国家——巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非——将成为全球增长新引擎。将高速增长简单外推让许多人开始构想这些经济体无比光明的未来——以及托它们之福,全世界都会迎来灿烂前途。

但如今,繁荣已经凋零。巴西和俄罗斯经济正在衰退,而中国和南非也大幅放缓。只有印度增长率在向上攀升,目前略高于中国。金砖国家能实现此前的前景吗?还是会遇到难以避免的持续问题?

低收入国家往往人均固定资本(计算机、工厂、基础设施)和人力资本(教育和培训)极低,因此资本投资回报潜力较高。这意味着它们可以以比富裕国家更快的速度增长,直到人均收入实现赶超。

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