brick wall Laura Gilmore/Flickr

金砖国家繁荣已去

斯坦福—几年前，专家和决策者预测金砖国家——巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非——将成为全球增长新引擎。将高速增长简单外推让许多人开始构想这些经济体无比光明的未来——以及托它们之福，全世界都会迎来灿烂前途。

但如今，繁荣已经凋零。巴西和俄罗斯经济正在衰退，而中国和南非也大幅放缓。只有印度增长率在向上攀升，目前略高于中国。金砖国家能实现此前的前景吗？还是会遇到难以避免的持续问题？

低收入国家往往人均固定资本（计算机、工厂、基础设施）和人力资本（教育和培训）极低，因此资本投资回报潜力较高。这意味着它们可以以比富裕国家更快的速度增长，直到人均收入实现赶超。

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