Italy and Germany Simon Granati/Getty Images

Kein Profit aus einem Brexit für die EU

MAILAND – Bis vor kurzem haben die Europäer dem britischen Referendum über die Mitgliedschaft des Landes in der Europäischen Union kaum Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt. Nun, da sich die tatsächliche Möglichkeit eines „Brexit“ abzeichnet, grübeln sie zunehmend über dessen mögliche Auswirkungen nach. Doch statt ernsthaft die Risiken zu erwägen, verhalten sich viele wie Mitglieder einer großen Familie, die kurz davor stehen, einen wohlhabenden Verwandten zu verlieren, und verteilen im Geiste schon mal das Erbe, bevor noch das Testament verlesen wird.

Dies ist eindeutig der Fall in Italien, wo viele von einem Brexit unverhoffte Vorteile erwarten. Der äußerst EU-freundlich eingestellte Ministerpräsident Matteo Renzi weist dabei den Weg, hin zu einem stärker integrierten Europa, in dessen Mittelpunkt eine wohlhabende Apenninenhalbinsel steht. Doch überschätzen derartige Erwartungen die Vorteile eines Brexit für die übrige EU deutlich und unterschätzen zugleich die Risiken enorm.

Zunächst einmal würden die höheren Kosten des Handels mit dem Vereinigten Königreich, einem wichtigen Importeur italienischer Waren, Italiens Exporteuren schaden, und das zu einer Zeit, in der sich das Land müht, der schlimmsten Rezession seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg zu entkommen. Die öffentlichen Erwartungen, dass weder das Vereinigte Königreich noch die EU Handelsbeschränkungen gegenüber dem jeweils anderen verhängen werden, scheint im besten Fall nicht überzeugend angesichts der protektionistischen Tendenzen, die dazu beigetragen haben, den britischen Euroskeptizismus anzuheizen, sowie der Möglichkeit, dass die europäischen Politiker versuchen werden, andere Mitgliedsstaaten davon abzuhalten, dem britischen Beispiel zu folgen.

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