Comments 7

有无英国参加的欧洲一体化

Jun 9, 2016 Kemal Derviş

华盛顿——在英国首相戴维·卡梅伦2月与欧盟就经过修改的英国成员资格达成一致时，他坚持要求欧盟应获得“多币种联盟”的正式承认。因为欧洲一体化在货币和其他问题上都存在明确的限制，卡梅伦认为他应当可以赢得多数民众对这项协议的支持——从而在6月23日英国举行的全民公投中达到留在欧盟的目的。但协议不仅没有在这方面做出明确的表述，反而用扭曲的语言来避免发布这样的正式声明——以及随之而来的必不可少的解释。

可以肯定，2月决议的确给了卡梅伦足够的筹码组织反对英国退欧的活动。因为特别指出英国和丹麦没有义务采用欧元，卡梅伦的同行们确实有效确认了欧盟作为“多货币联盟”的地位。

但决议同时重申了建立“以欧元为货币的”欧盟的目标，并再次重申了条约规定，要求其他非欧元区国家（如保加利亚和波兰）必须在满足预设条件时采用欧元。（瑞典并没有永久退出，并且已经满足了采用欧元的条件，却不知何故成功地避免了加入货币联盟。）

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 8 in all 8 Comments on this article

Robert Bruce Jun 12, 2016

The long term future is much wider than this article suggests. In the short term the question is whether the Eurozone can be stabilised, or will it break apart, tipping Europe back into recession. Much depends on finding a solution to accommodate fiscal stimulus needed in countries with high unemployment, whilst they remain tied to Germany, which is obsessed with austerity and risks of inflation. If Germany can see the wider picture, and allow temporary domestic inflation upto say 4% for a time, the union may be saved. Assume this is successful the long term future of wider cooperation must then become Global. Ideally this means the G20 countries cooperating to create a single regulated Global market between their economies. Tying this group together holds far bigger challenges, but the prize is huge - a single regulated market serving over 4.5 billion people, and 85%. Stabilising Europe is a crucial stepping stone to this Global future.

Robert P Bruce
Author - www.TheGlobalRace.net
Stepan Benyovszky Jun 12, 2016

Considering how monetary politics were used (with some degree of success) to cope with economic crises and risk of deflation in countries within EU that still have their own currency, I imagine the consensus of both their governments and their informed public would be to postpone accepting Euro until the economic interests of the countries in question align perfectly with those of Germany.

Otherwise it's going to be a really hard sell, Britain or no Britain.
j. von Hettlingen Jun 11, 2016

Kemal Derviş speaks of a possible “multi-currency union” with or without Britain. As Britain has little interest in an integration, David Cameron has demanded from the EU a number of concessions - among others a formal acknowledgement of "a multi-currency Europe of pounds, kroner and forints as well as euros." Indeed, when he insisted "that the UK and Denmark are under no obligation to adopt the euro," his "counterparts did effectively confirm the EU’s status as a multi-currency union." But such concessions would mean a fundamental change to the nature of the European Union. A closer union is to have euro as its single currency and the treaty provisions stipulate that "other non-euro states, such as Bulgaria and Poland, must adopt the euro when they meet the pre-determined conditions."
The author says, instead of "providing such clarity, the pact uses contorted language to avoid such an official declaration," suggesting the EU is either unwilling or unable "to provide a clear description of how a multi-currency union will function in the long term." He says the EU has to face this "tough" issue and deal with it, with or without Britain's membership. Should Britons "choose to leave the EU, a similar problem would arise in any post-Brexit negotiation to keep the UK in the single market."
There is a "general consensus" that the EU needs to "build more integrated economic governance systems." Economists point out the remorseless logic for a banking and fiscal union in the eurozone. As a monetary union, it needs more than a "banking union," and a greater harmonisation of fiscal policies is equally important, "to compensate for the lack of independent monetary policies and flexible exchange rates."
There seems no lack of support for "greater fiscal integration" among EU politicians. France, Germany and Italy have even "called for versions of a common eurozone finance minister." As there is disagreement among the three on how the form of integration should take, "a balance will need to be struck," which is "essential to enable the EU to function as an effective multi-currency union."
Cameron, like his predecessor Gordon Brown, "who was present at the euro’s creation," has no appetite to join the eurozone, because Britain wants to protect its financial industry. But Cameron "recognizes the need for further eurozone integration," ensuring Britain will benefit from "better economic performance in its most important export market."
The author proposes "two key objectives" that Britain "will need to pursue" to achieve its goal. First, "it must establish strong cooperation with the EU on other key issues, such as security, foreign, and climate policy." Second, "it must ensure that an increasingly integrated eurozone does not gain the authority to make unilaterally fiscal and regulatory decisions." It fears that "reshaping the single market or the financial sector." would have "significant implications" for its economy.
Unfortunately Brexit advocates focus their debate on immigration. Even though issues "relating to eurozone integration and the multi-currency union" have been fallen off the radar, "they remain vital to the future of the EU, with or without the UK." It's time to contemplate how to create "institutions that will serve a "permanent multi-currency union" while maintaining a "more integrated eurozone." The author sees "two Europes in one" - which "will be politically and legally challenging." However if Europe "is to make genuine progress toward greater stability and prosperity, it will need to ensure transparency and legitimacy every step of the way." The EU needs "a clear political vision and institutions" in order to be able to regain strength. Should Britain remain, the EU must "urgently work out how a legitimate multi-currency union will function." Should it leave, "the same basic problems must be solved." The only difference is that Britain would lose "all leverage."
Steve Hurst Jun 10, 2016

'There is now a general consensus that, over time, the eurozone will need to build more integrated economic governance systems.'

I suggest you ask the voters about this, as the EU is based on democractic process
M M Jun 10, 2016

Kemal, it appears to me that you have not been reading the opinion of the commentators on PS. It would be interesting to have an independent census in the EU on how many people would like to be called or would call themselves Europeans instead of being called say, Greeks, British, Germans, etc. The result of such a census should give you and others an indication regarding the true viability of the EU family.
John Brian Shannon Jun 9, 2016

Hi Kemal,

The UK should leave the EU and take all the Scandinavian countries and Ireland with it.

Not only that, it should invite all those countries into The Commonwealth of Nations, and only former Prime Ministers of any Commonwealth nation should serve as Secretary General of the Commonwealth. Suggesting 2-year terms there.

All Commonwealth nations should be encouraged to replace ALL income taxes with a 1% Tobin Tax.

Also, all Commonwealth nations should be encouraged to replace all VAT taxes with a simple 5% export tariff and a 5% import tariff.

All Commonwealth nations should be strongly encouraged to invest heavily in other Commonwealth nations, using the massive revenue that accrue from the 1% Tobin Tax and import/export tariffs.

Information and technology sharing should become ubiquitous between Commonwealth nation states.

OK, over to the EU side.

It is a muddle. Progress is being made, but slowly.

For the EU, adding the UK to the mix and the UK attempting to negotiate a special place within the EU is simply going to become the Leopard Tank that breaks the camel's back.

The EU has more than enough challenges with the southern European states and the Eurozone situation. Adding special status to the Brits and never-ending negotiations with the Brits, is just asking for massive failure.

European Union leaders need to let go of what they can't hope to accomplish or control outcomes, and concentrate on making the best success out of southern and eastern Europe.

Just don't get into it with Vlad, over Ukraine. Forget Ukraine!

Again, concentrate on making the best EU that you can. If that succeeds, that in itself will be a monumental success story worthy of the history books.

I wish the EU well. Very well, in fact.

From the earliest and desperate postwar days (Marshall Plan) through to the present, the European Project continues to succeed in spite of many competing interests and obstacles.

It is a thrilling testament to the determination of the European people.

However, taking on too many challenges could result in the end of all of it, and set the European Project back by one decade or more.

Wishing my UK friends and family, wishing my northern European friends, wishing my Commonwealth of Nations friends and (equally and without reservation) wishing my EU and Eurozone friends every possible success within their own particular domains.

Great to read you here at ProSyn, Kemal.

As always, very best regards, JBS
Bernard Fudim Jun 9, 2016

The EU must as a first step adopt English as the official language and mandate teaching it in schools from first grade through secondary school. That will enable the citizens to have a common international language of commerce and finance.
- Steve Hurst Jun 10, 2016
  
  @ Bernard
  
  American, not English ; )

http://prosyn.org/YPxf5NQ/zh;

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