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英国退出欧盟的经济后果

发自伦敦——那些力争英国退出欧盟的人声称,此举会令他们的国家都更自由也更富裕。他们断言脱盟之后,英国可能很快与欧盟谈妥一项专属协议,可以在享受所自由贸易优势的同时摒除作为欧盟成员国所产生的成本;与其他国家签订更有利的贸易协定;并获得摆脱繁琐欧盟法规所产生的巨大好处。但这,仅仅是种错觉

事实上,脱盟将为英国带来巨大的经济成本。旷日持久且必定严苛的分离程序所导致的不确定性和破坏会抑制投资和增长。永久分离会减少贸易,外商投资和人口迁移,从而对竞争力,生产力增长和生活水平造成负面影响。此外“独立”还将剥夺英国对未来欧盟改革——包括单一服务业市场的最终构建——的影响力,这些都是英国本该从中受益的改革。

根据伦敦政治经济学院经济绩效研究中心的估算,英国因减少对欧盟贸易而产生的长期成本可能相当于GDP的9.5%,而外国投资下降的影响则可能超过GDP的3.4%。仅仅这两项成本就将缩小脱盟的潜在收益。英国对欧盟预算的净贡献额只相当于去年GDP的0.35%,而由于英国的劳动力和产品市场本来就已经享有极高的自由度,因此摆脱欧盟法规会带来的好处也极为有限。

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