Margaret Scott

巴西经济革命

巴西利亚—在过去的一年中,大型新兴经济体纷纷因发达国家危机引起欧洲的衰退和美国复苏乏力而遭受重创,特别是上半年。但2012年仍将成为巴西经济史上被人铭记的一年,这一年,巴西经济结构性变革得到了巩固。

2008年开始的全球经济危机类似于20世纪30年代的大萧条,这么说不仅是因为深度和持续时间,也是因为发达国家面对危机的政策错误和犹豫。令人担心的是,欧洲领导人总是无法就财政调整政策达成一致,从而为重振经济增长所必须的刺激措施创造空间。到目前为止,仍有财政余地的欧洲国家要求支出和投资的削减,这与增税一道抑制了经济活动,增加了失业,最终破坏了税收——因而也拖累了财政整固。

在美国,尽管情况有些许改善,但不确定性仍未消除。除了2013年坠下“财政悬崖”的风险,主要问题依旧:缺少有效的反周期财政政策(如公共投资计划)以提振经济活动。相反,美国把全部力量用在了货币宽松上,发动了我所谓的货币战争,在这场战争中,全球投资者为了追寻高收益,纷纷涌向新兴市场,推高了它们的汇率。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/TUcE6B5/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now