Margaret Scott

巴西经济革命

巴西利亚—在过去的一年中,大型新兴经济体纷纷因发达国家危机引起欧洲的衰退和美国复苏乏力而遭受重创,特别是上半年。但2012年仍将成为巴西经济史上被人铭记的一年,这一年,巴西经济结构性变革得到了巩固。

2008年开始的全球经济危机类似于20世纪30年代的大萧条,这么说不仅是因为深度和持续时间,也是因为发达国家面对危机的政策错误和犹豫。令人担心的是,欧洲领导人总是无法就财政调整政策达成一致,从而为重振经济增长所必须的刺激措施创造空间。到目前为止,仍有财政余地的欧洲国家要求支出和投资的削减,这与增税一道抑制了经济活动,增加了失业,最终破坏了税收——因而也拖累了财政整固。

在美国,尽管情况有些许改善,但不确定性仍未消除。除了2013年坠下“财政悬崖”的风险,主要问题依旧:缺少有效的反周期财政政策(如公共投资计划)以提振经济活动。相反,美国把全部力量用在了货币宽松上,发动了我所谓的货币战争,在这场战争中,全球投资者为了追寻高收益,纷纷涌向新兴市场,推高了它们的汇率。

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