El funesto rescate de Brasil

La semana pasada, el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) aprobó un paquete de rescate para Brasil más grande de lo que esperaban los mercados financieros. Esto debería haber disipado los temores acerca del futuro de ese país. Hasta el momento, eso no ha sucedido.

Después de un aumento inicial, las tasas de interés brasileñas se han estabilizado a niveles que no son compatibles con la solvencia de largo plazo. Sus "bonos C", que son los de referencia, tienen actualmente un rendimiento aproximado de 22% en términos de dólares. La deuda de Brasil equivale al 60% del PIB, 35% de la cual vence dentro de un año. El FMI ha exigido que Brasil tenga un "superávit primario" (es decir, que los intereses sobre la deuda gubernamental no se consideren dentro de los cálculos para el presupuesto) de 3.75%. Pero eso claramento no podrá prevenir un gran deterioro adicional en la relación deuda nacional/PIB, sobre todo a medida que las altas tasas de interés lleven a Brasil a una recesión.

El hecho de que este paquete no haya logrado traer alivio indica que algo está esencialmente mal en el sistema financiero internacional. No se pueden achacar los problemas del país a algo que Brasil haya hecho mal. La responsabilidad recae directamente sobre las autoridades financieras internacionales. Es cierto que dentro de poco Brasil podría elegir un presidente que no sea del agrado de los mercados financieros globales, pero si los mercados internacionales tienen más peso que una elección democrática, el sistema es indudablemente defectuoso.

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