Brasiliens unheilvolle Finanzspritze

Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) sprach Brasilien in der letzten Woche ein größeres Rettungspaket zu, als die Weltfinanzmärkte erwartet hatten. Es sollte die Ängste über Brasiliens Zukunft beschwichtigen. Bisher jedenfalls gelang ihm das nicht.

Nach anfänglich starkem Börsengang haben sich die Zinssätze in Brasilien auf einem Niveau eingependelt, das mit seiner langfristigen Bonität unvereinbar ist. Seine Bemessungsgröße, nämlich die "C-Bonds" bringen jetzt um die 22 % gemessen am Dollarertrag. Brasiliens Schulden machen 60 % seines Bruttoinlandprodukts (BIP) aus, davon werden 35 % binnen eines Jahres fällig. Der IWF verlangt, dass Brasilien einen Haushaltsüberschuss ,,erster Hand" (das heißt: die Zinszahlungen für Regierungsanleihen werden in den Haushaltsberechnungen nicht berücksichtigt) von 3.75 % des Gesamthaushalts erwirtschaftet. Doch das ist offensichtlich nicht genug, um zu verhindern, dass sich das Verhältnis von Schulden zum BIP des Landes weiter verschlechtert, zumal es die hohen Zinsbelastungen sind, die Brasilien in die Rezession stoßen.

Die Tatsache, dass dieses Rettungspaket keine Entlastung bringt, lässt erkennen, dass am internationalen Finanzsystem etwas grundsätzlich nicht stimmt. Brasiliens Schwierigkeiten lassen sich nicht darauf zurückführen, dass Brasilien irgendetwas falsch gemacht habe; Verantwortung für sie trägt von Rechts wegen die internationale Finanzaufsicht. Zugegeben, Brasilien wird wohl bald einen Präsidenten wählen, den die globalen Finanzmärkte nicht mögen; wenn aber die internationalen Finanzmärkte den Vorrang gegenüber demokratischen Wahlen bekommen, dann ist das System ohne Zweifel nicht in Ordnung.

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