Subvention nuisible pour le Brésil

Le Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) a, la semaine dernière, lancé un programme de sauvetage pour le Brésil plus important que ce à quoi s'attendaient les marchés financiers. Cela aurait dû calmer les craintes quant à l'avenir du Brésil mais ce n'est toujours pas le cas.

Après une première amélioration, les taux d'intérêts brésiliens se sont stabilisés à des niveaux incompatibles avec une solvabilité à long terme. Son point de référence, les « bons du trésor C » ont un rendement de 22% aujourd'hui, en dollars. La dette du Brésil équivaut à 60% de son PIB, dont 35% seront dus dans l'année à venir. Le FMI exige que le Brésil crée un excédent principal de 3,75% sur son budget (soit, que les intérêts de la dette ne soient pas calculés dans le budget gouvernemental). Mais cela n'empêchera pas une détérioration toujours plus importante du taux d'endettement du pays par rapport à son PIB, surtout quand les taux d'intérêt élevés poussent le Brésil toujours plus loin dans la récession.

Le fait que ce plan de sauvetage ne parvienne pas à soulager le Brésil indique qu'il y a là une carence fondamentale dans le système financier international. Les problèmes du Brésil ne peuvent pas être imputés aux erreurs que le Brésil aurait commises. Les responsabilités sont bien au niveau des autorités financières internationales. Il est vrai qu'il est probable que le Brésil porte à la présidence un homme que les marchés financiers n'apprécient pas, mais si les marchés financiers ont force de loi contre les choix démocratiques d'un peuple, alors le système est sans conteste impropre.

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