Ante un dólar que toca fondo

A medida que pasa el tiempo sin que el valor del dólar caiga drásticamente ni las fuerzas del mercado comiencen a reducir el déficit de cuenta corriente de EE.UU. (que muy bien puede llegar al billón de dólares este año) están surgiendo dos reacciones diametralmente opuestas. La mayoría de los economistas financieros internacionales sienten un creciente temor de que se genere una importante crisis financiera internacional. De hecho, temen que la escala de esa crisis potencial se esté volviendo cada vez mayor.

Otros, especialmente los gestores de activos financieros, están cada vez más convencidos de que los economistas no saben demasiado, y que lo que saben no sirve para operadores como ellos. Ven pocas razones para creer que los valores actuales de los activos y los flujos comerciales no sean sostenibles.

Después de todo, argumentan ellos (o al menos algunos de ellos), el PGB real de los Estados Unidos está creciendo en 400 mil millones de dólares al año, de los cuales cerca de 270 mil millones corresponden al trabajo y 130 mil millones al capital. Incluso después de la depreciación, esos 130 mil millones de ingreso anual adicional se capitalizan en cerca de 1,5 billones de dólares de riqueza, de modo que el actual déficit de cuenta corriente, incluso a 1 billón de dólares, no es abrumadoramente grande. Los estadounidenses podemos vender dos tercios del incremento de nuestra riqueza para financiar importaciones, y todavía seremos 500 mil millones de dólares más ricos este año en relación con el año pasado.

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