美元的底线

美元价值不会急剧下跌,市场力量也无法缩小美国经常账户赤字,该赤字今年很可能达到10,000亿美元。随着时间的推移,出现了两种截然对立的反应。大多数国际金融经济学家越来越担心可能出现重大国际金融危机。确实,他们害怕该潜在危机的规模会越变越大。

其他人(特别是金融资产管理者)则越来越认为经济学家知之甚少,而且他们所知晓的那点东西对自己这样的商人毫无用处。他们认为,没有理由相信流动资产价值和贸易流是不可持续的。

毕竟,他们(或其中一些人)认为,美国实际GDP每年增长4,000亿美元,其中约2,700亿美元用于劳动力,1,300亿美元用作资本。甚至在美元贬值之后,1,300亿美元的额外年收入资本化为15,000亿美元的资产,这样,经常账户赤字即便达到10,000亿美元,数额也不算特别大。我们美国人可以卖掉三分之二的资产增量用于资助进口,今年依然能比去年富余5,000亿美元。

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