Politics

A Crise de que a Europa Necessita

Oct 14, 2015 Barry Eichengreen

BERKELEY – É difícil ser-se optimista em relação à Europa. No verão passado, uma disputa política entre a Alemanha e a Grécia, ameaçou destroçar a União Europeia. Os partidos políticos extremistas ganham terreno em vários países. A incursão na Ucrânia, no quintal da UE, pelo presidente Russo Vladimir Putin, fez da política externa e de segurança europeia uma espécie de piada.

Agora surge a crise dos refugiados. Os 28 Estados-Membros da UE discutem sobre a questão da distribuição de 120 mil refugiados, quando mais do triplo deste número atravessou o Mediterrâneo nos primeiros nove meses de 2015.

Os refugiados estão a chegar por via terrestre e marítima. A Alemanha prevê para este cerca de 1 milhão de pedidos de asilo. Será ridículo imaginar que os governos europeus poderão deportar, ou “repatriar”, diplomaticamente falando, qualquer fracção significativa destas chegadas. Tal como acontece com as bolas de borracha, vão voltar.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 14 Comments on this article

Yusuf Emre Koc Oct 22, 2015

The all facilities for border controls or any others are in vain. First the EU and US and Russia should come to a table and negotiate for ending conflicts in the Middle East. This is the only way. Because the refugee crisis is not sustainable for all, especially for Turkey and EU. There will be a lot of social, judicial, phsyicological problems. So, there is only one solution: to stop the war in the Middle East, or this fire will burn all over the world.
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Allan Bleiken Oct 21, 2015

HAS THE WORLD GONE CRAZY?

You would think that after writing "The Hall of Mirrors" that Dr. Eichengreen would know enough about depressions and recessions not to advocate for an additional crisis. Europe and the world's problems are not cause by the Greek crisis or refugees. They are caused by dim-witted political leaders (and professors) who place national economic and military power ahead of building a better society for the people of the earth.

Just think, if you could divert all or part of the trillion dollar plus expenditures every year on the military to resolving some of the problems which face society. Would it make a difference? Would the end of the man-made wars in the Middle East resolve the refugee crisis?

The reality is that the status quo is not working. Historically, for every year of peace in society, there have been eleven years of war. You would think that someone, including just one of our educational elites, would figure out it is not working and that an alternative to conflict driven crisis would serve the world better.

God help us all.
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Diego Orlandi Oct 19, 2015

"Burden sharing is essential if the costs are to be tolerable." Do we have a contemporary history historian in the house?
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jagjeet sinha Oct 16, 2015

Since France met its First Waterloo at Agincourt in 1416, every 100 Years history gives her the opportunity to avenge.
If it is not Britain, it is America.
If it is not Britain, nor America, it is Germany.
If it is not Britain, nor America, nor Germany, it is Russia.
If it is not Britain, nor America, nor Germany, nor Russia, it is The Ottomans.
If it is not Britain, nor America, nor Germany, nor Russia, nor The Ottomans, it is The Indians.
If it is not Britain, nor America, nor Germany, nor Russia, nor The Ottomans, nor The Indians, it is The Chinese.
2015 - Germany clearly no longer interested in hegemony in Europe.
2015 - America clearly no longer interested in hegemony in the World.
2015 - Britain clearly reluctant in continuing its agony in Europe.
For France, it is the opportunity it has been dreaming about for 500 years.
The obstacles in its centennial challenge are Russia to The East, Middle East to The South.
European Union awaits French leadership in The Great Game - ClubRed and ClubMed could become its greatest opportunity.
The end of German hegemony, the end of American hegemony, the end of British hegemony.
It is for France to seize its moment of Truth - 500 years of history, 500 years in waiting.
- jagjeet sinha Oct 19, 2015
  
  Mr Orlandi
  Nature abhors a vacuum - Europe always creates a stalemate with no Headquarters to lead, no Supreme Commander.
  Successful Unions need a HQ and Supreme Commander - just like The Church needs its Vatican and Pope.
  America fortunately spoke English - had it chosen German French Spanish Italian it would not be The Superpower today.
  The British Empire was in command - and had Headquarters that ensured the Economics that made it Numero Uno.
  Europe today needs Headquarters - Brussels simply redirects Migration all over, Capitals cannot abdicate responsibility.
  Migration unleashed has enormous energies that need to be harnessed - human uoro
  The ECB - run by 29 Headquarters - is simply not able to lead the way Bank of England leads or Federal Reserve leads.
  Without NATO and its Supreme Command, European borders would be the biggest joke.
  France is the heart, the reason why European Union was created - and must lead, charades end in tears.
  Otherwise best to capitulate, rather than prolong the agony - rather than vacillating headless Europe.
  Back to the only Union that works - NATO.
  Regards
  JS
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- Diego Orlandi Oct 19, 2015
  
  I wonder if other "Unions" ever cried for a "leading nation" as much as EU today. Maybe a clear indicator of our troubles to agree together? How funny would it be, even 200 years ago, to read someone crying for "the state of New York" or "of Virginia to lead way for other states"?
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Peter Schneider Oct 14, 2015

It's not the time now to reason about economic setbacks, borderless trading is no achievement if it leads to the eradication of your civilization through uncontrolled mass immigration. Our elites are mere shopkeepers who view their people as movable stock that can be filled up . So far their audacious experiment to amalgamate nations and create local supply chains only cost the Northern Europeans tons of money, their life insurances and pension savings, the Southern Europeans their competitivity and their jobs - but now it's different, now our culture in total is engdangered. The monetary union, the Schengen agreement, the European Union are all reversible, but with mass immigration it's different, this is really difficult to reverse. With the competitivity crisis they could create shadow banks to hide massive transfer payments and shift everything to the future, Draghi could print money for them indefinitely - but with mass immigration it's different, the immigrants cannot be hidden in shadow banks, they are physically there, they stand in your town halls and request social security payments, they need a physical bed now.

With the competitivity crisis the elites could hide their failure, with mass immigration they cannot do this any longer. Merkel says she cannot protect our borders. By now, one third of all Germans want her immediate resignation. There are now letters of protest by mayors of smaller towns, one mayor from a middle-sized town resigned from his party, the propaganda in the mass media rings hollower by the day. And a million of immigrants more are still expected this year. So if this should really be the crisis Europe needs, then it can only be for the failure of the EU for everybody to watch out in the open.
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M M Oct 14, 2015

Schengen is not the problem, people can travel and move freely between states in the US, why can’t this be replicated in the EU? Why should Greece, a bankrupt country without any possibility to borrow or print its own money, be forced to purchase defunct armoury from German manufacturers at exorbitant prices to defend the EU borders / shores? Or are these Greek shores / borders? Or neither? The EU has become a joke. The problems are lack of solidarity and total selfishness (to state just a few examples) amongst the elites in the EU.
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Walter Gingery Oct 14, 2015

"Such reticence . . ."

I think you mean "reluctance." The Germans have been anything but reticent about the limits to their objections.
- Walter Gingery Oct 14, 2015
  
  strike "the limits to"
  
  (I don't understand, incidentally, why one should be unable to delete and repost a comment.)
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hari naidu Oct 14, 2015

The cultural/historical divide between western & eastern Europe is reason for policy integration and constraint on refugees, in particular. The problem is inevitably irresistible and creates tremendous poison in dialogue between members and their officials. Principally because they are speaking over their counterparts heads; while rightist parties are gaining strength and followers (e.g. Pegida movement in Germany).

And if this development continues it might spell the end of Merkel's era.
Recall western Germany & eastern Germany are still divided - after 25 years - on various socio-economic fronts; the twin shall not meet soon, methinks.
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Balazs Ambrus Oct 14, 2015

With the drastically increasing number of immigrants, all EU countries - even Germany and Sweden - should recognise the unsustainability of open border policy. Keeping to Schengen rules with fence, strict border control and naval force could however protect the Schengen zone and keep the EU together. As all know, significant time is needed for the EU to find adequate answer for this kind of challenges.

For now, solving the crises is beyond the power of EU. Upheaval rather serves the interest of huffish Putin, turning religious Erdogan, adding to some confused policy of the US in the region.
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Jerry hough Oct 14, 2015

This is right, but the first sentence is also right about the odds of this happening.

What needs to be said is that US foreign policy has been an utter disaster. England needed rulers like Elizabeth I at its stage of development. Quasi-democracy added to a weak king was a disaster in 1640 and naval coups were necessary in 1660 and 1688 to put the country on the path to democracy in 1832. Centuries were involved.

Iraq, Syria, and Libya at their stage need rulers like Saddam, Assad, and Kaddafi. Tunisia has a higher GDP, but not as high as Lebanon and Turkey. It is more marginal, but demoncracy probably will not survive.

Europe has been built for 70 years. That is way too short a time for the kind of unity that the Euro and an army requires. The US is now helping to tear it apart. It is paying very very dearly for its lack of a sense of history. These issues in a 1000-year examination of the history of England and Spain are found in The Long Process of Development.
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M M Oct 14, 2015

In your concluding paragraph, you touched the heart of the problem...Germany. Germany all these years since WW2 has been living from the generosity of others and mainly the US. The defence budgets were absorbed by other countries including Greece, thus passing on the costs to others whilst their only issue (fixation) was and is fiscal discipline. How can one have fiscal discipline when faced for disasters and be choosy as to what to accept and what not. It is time for Germany to pay its fair share to the others that have been bailing it out all these years.
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A Crise de que a Europa Necessita

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