Warum Konjunkturanreize nicht funktioniert haben

NEU-DELHI – Zwei grundlegende Glaubenssätze haben die Wirtschaftspolitik auf der Welt in den letzten Jahren bestimmt. Der erste lautet, dass die Welt an einer zu schwachen Gesamtnachfrage im Verhältnis zum Angebot leidet, der zweite, dass geldpolitische und finanzielle Anreize die Lücke schließen werden.

Ist es möglich, dass die Diagnose richtig, aber das Heilmittel das falsche ist? Das würde erklären, warum wir bisher so wenig Fortschritte gemacht haben, das Wachstum auf das Vorkrisenniveau zurückzubringen. Und es würde auch bedeuten, dass wir unsere Heilmittel überdenken müssen.

Die hohe unfreiwillige Arbeitslosigkeit in den Industrieländern lässt darauf schließen, dass die Nachfrage hinter dem potenziellen Angebot zurückbleibt. Obwohl die Arbeitslosigkeit in den Sektoren, die vor der Krise boomten, z. B. der Baubranche in den Vereinigten Staaten, bedeutend höher ist, betrifft sie auch weitere Sektoren, was die Sichtweise stützt, dass eine größere Nachfrage notwendig ist, um Vollbeschäftigung wiederherzustellen.

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