Commercial center in Japan

日本:比零更低

东京—日本银行采取大动作要让日本经济重新实现通货膨胀,如今,它已将存款利率压到了负区间。这一政策并不新鲜——欧洲央行、瑞典银行、瑞士国民银行和其他央行都已在实施这一政策——但对日本银行来说,这是个未知领域。不幸的是,市场的反应和预期的不一样。

理论上负利率迫使商业银行实际上需要付钱给中央银行才能把钱存在那里,因此理应刺激面向公司的贷款,公司得到贷款就会增加支出,包括雇用更多员工。这应该刺激股市反弹,提振家庭消费,遏制日元汇率,并结束通缩。但理论并不总能成为现实;尽管日本银行引入负利率几乎立刻如预期那样降低了利率结构,但这一政策对日元和股市的影响并不令人愉快。

原因之一是人们普遍对日本经济感到悲观,而这一点因为中国的波动、美国的货币紧缩以及世界石油价格的暴跌更加严重了。但是,日本银行行长黑田东彦最近向众议院报告说,日本经济基本面总体良好,悲观的预测过于夸张。

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