L’avenir de l’OTAN face à la question ukrainienne

VARSOVIE – L’agression perpétrée par la Russie en Ukraine soulève la question de la volonté et de la capacité de l’OTAN à œuvrer pour la protection de son flanc est-européen. Pour un pays tel que la Pologne, le noble principe de défense collective formulé par l’OTAN, bien qu’essentiel à la sécurité nationale, demeure, en l’absence de capacités militaires appropriées et de faisabilité sur le terrain, une simple promesse politique.

Au moment de l’adhésion de la Pologne à l’OTAN il y a quinze ans, il fut convenu que l’Article 5 – principe du « un pour tous, tous pour un » préconisant une réponse collective en cas d’attaque militaire sur l’un de ses membres – constituerait la pierre angulaire de la sécurité du pays. Depuis, les Alliés ont trouvé différentes manières de mettre en pratique de façon opérationnelle les obligations émanant de cet Article 5. Le nouveau concept stratégique adopté par l’Alliance lors du sommet de Lisbonne en 2010 a fait de la défense collective l’une de ses trois principales missions, soulignant la nécessité d’élaborer des plans d’urgence, d’organiser des formations et des exercices conjoints, ainsi que de veiller à une « assurance visible » entre les États membres. Pour ce qui est de cette définition stratégique, un tel calendrier répond aux attentes de la Pologne.

Les plans d’urgence négociés par la Pologne en 2008-2010 impliquent un renforcement de la capacité militaire du pays dans le cas d’une agression en provenance de l’Est. La Lituanie, la Lettonie et l’Estonie ont mis en œuvre des mesures similaires.

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