Das Problem der Türkei mit dem heißen Geld

NEW YORK – Die anhaltende finanzielle Volatilität in den Schwellenländern heizt die Debatte darüber an, ob die so genannten „Fragilen Fünf“ – Brasilien, Indien, Indonesien, Südafrika und die Türkei – als Opfer der Geldpolitik der Industriestaaten oder als Opfer ihrer eigenen exzessiven Integration in die weltweiten Finanzmärkte betrachtet werden sollten. Zur Beantwortung dieser Frage müssen die unterschiedlichen politischen Antworten dieser Länder auf die Geldexpansion betrachtet werden – und die verschiedenen Risikoebenen, die durch diese Antworten entstanden sind.

Obwohl jeder der Fragilen Fünf – die durch ihr Haushalts- und Leistungsbilanz-Doppeldefizit gekennzeichnet sind, das sie besonders anfällig für die Volatilität der Kapitalflüsse macht – seit der globalen Krise einige makroökonomische Maßnahmen getroffen hat, war die Bandbreite dieser Maßnahmen und ihrer Ergebnisse doch sehr hoch. Während Brasilien, Indien und Indonesien auf die steigenden Zuflüsse mit neuen Kapitalverkehrskontrollen reagiert haben, erlaubten Südafrika und die Türkei den freien Fluss des Kapitals über ihre Grenzen.

Nehmen wir die türkische Reaktion, die durch ein unerschütterliches Bekenntnis zu freien Kapitalflüssen gekennzeichnet ist. Obwohl aktuell die politischen Entwicklungen in der Türkei die größte Aufmerksamkeit auf sich ziehen, wurzelt die momentane Krise des Landes in wirtschaftlicher Schwäche, die durch eine Abnahme des Investorenvertrauens und die starke Abwertung der Lira gekennzeichnet ist. Diese Instabilität rief Angst vor einer Ansteckung anderer Schwellenländer hervor, wobei Südafrika aufgrund seines offenen Kapitalmarktes besonders anfällig erschien.

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