economics class Richard Graulich/ZumaPress

Uma economia que se adapte aos factos

CAMBRIDGE – A profissão de economista foi provavelmente a primeira vítima da crise financeira global 2008-2009. Afinal de contas, os seus profissionais não conseguiram antecipar a calamidade e muitos pareciam incapazes de dizer qualquer coisa útil quando chegou a hora de formularem uma resposta. Mas, como acontece com a economia global, há motivos para se ter esperança de que a disciplina está em recuperação.

Os modelos económicos convencionais foram desacreditados pela crise, porque eles simplesmente não admitiam a sua possibilidade. E praticar essa técnica tornada prioritária acima da intuição, e a elegância teórica acima da relevância no mundo real, não preparou os economistas para serem capazes de fornecer o tipo de aconselhamento político prático necessário em circunstâncias excecionais.

Alguns argumentam que a solução é regressar aos modelos económicos mais simples do passado, que renderam receitas políticas que evidentemente foram suficientes para evitar crises semelhantes. Outros insistem que, pelo contrário, as atuais políticas em vigor exigem modelos cada vez mais complexos que podem capturar mais plenamente a dinâmica caótica da economia do século XXI.

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