Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. He is co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton University Press, 2011) and author of The Curse of Cash (Princeton University Press, 2016).
发自剑桥——在美联储最近也是头一次的新闻发布会上,主席本·伯南克为本机构饱受诟病的大规模购买美国政府债券(也就是所谓的“量化宽松”)政策大力辩护。那么他的理由有说服力吗?
大多数经济学家认为伯南克干的不错。但美元持续下滑而黄金不断上升的事实也反映出市场对此的怀疑态度。对于中央银行来说,最困难的事莫过于投资者们听到的信息往往与央行想传达的截然不同。
很显然,美联储是在交易者的呼吁下被迫采用“量化宽松”政策的,因为原本一直用来对通胀和增长进行微调的隔夜利率已经下降到近乎零了,但美国经济却依然停滞不前,又被挥之不去的高失业率所困扰。人们把一切问题都归咎于量化宽松政策,从资产价格泡沫到食品暴乱甚至连脓包病都没有漏下。包括外国财政部长到政治漫画家(请参见网上一段名为“量化宽松答疑”的动画视频)以及前共和党总统候选人萨拉·佩林在内的所有人都争相对政策发表自己的高见。
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